{"id":463,"date":"2016-12-10T20:43:33","date_gmt":"2016-12-10T20:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/?post_type=insight&p=463"},"modified":"2026-04-09T01:24:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T01:24:10","slug":"problems-to-avoid-when-forecasting-product-service-and-technology-adoption-as-part-of-diligence","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/es\/insights\/problems-to-avoid-when-forecasting-product-service-and-technology-adoption-as-part-of-diligence\/","title":{"rendered":"002: Problemas que se deben evitar al pronosticar la adopci\u00f3n de productos, servicios y tecnolog\u00edas como parte del proceso de debida diligencia."},"content":{"rendered":"

Una tesis de inversi\u00f3n a menudo depende de la adopci\u00f3n, en una u otra forma (por ejemplo, de un nuevo producto, modelo de negocio, tecnolog\u00eda, etc.), por lo que pensamos que ser\u00eda \u00fatil exponer las "mejores y peores" pr\u00e1cticas para evaluar el potencial de adopci\u00f3n.<\/p><\/div>\n\n

\n\n

Primero, los errores m\u00e1s comunes.<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

Tras revisar cientos de CIM, VDD e informes de la industria que abordan la adopci\u00f3n, encontramos que los enfoques predominantes a menudo se simplifican demasiado en una de estas dos formas:<\/p>\n\n

    \n
  • Una curva en forma de S presentada sobre un gr\u00e1fico de tasas de penetraci\u00f3n actuales sin suficiente investigaci\u00f3n o an\u00e1lisis para identificar, y mucho menos respaldar, en qu\u00e9 punto de la curva en forma de S nos encontramos (y cu\u00e1ndo podemos esperar razonablemente el pr\u00f3ximo punto de inflexi\u00f3n) para el producto; y<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Una representaci\u00f3n y testimonio de tener una propuesta de valor atractiva. Por ejemplo, una encuesta de clientes que demuestre el atractivo superior de una nueva tecnolog\u00eda en relaci\u00f3n con su precio y beneficios, lo que indica una adopci\u00f3n generalizada por s\u00ed sola.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

    Para predecir con precisi\u00f3n la adopci\u00f3n, es necesario comprender el proceso de compra y los obst\u00e1culos que presenta, espec\u00edficamente, c\u00f3mo est\u00e1 impulsado e influenciado por personas reales, que operan en culturas, prioridades, limitaciones y roles \u00fanicos.<\/p>\n\n

    No comprender completamente el entorno y la din\u00e1mica de las compras puede conducir a dos errores anal\u00edticos importantes: tama\u00f1os de mercado potenciales dr\u00e1sticamente err\u00f3neos y errores en la previsi\u00f3n del momento de la adopci\u00f3n:<\/p>\n\n

      \n
    • Calcular err\u00f3neamente el tama\u00f1o del mercado potencial suele deberse a centrarse demasiado en la propuesta de valor y a no comprender los riesgos que los clientes perciben al adoptar nuevas tecnolog\u00edas. Decenas de factores contribuyen a una mayor barrera basada en el riesgo: el alto coste del tiempo de inactividad, los elevados costes de formaci\u00f3n, la incertidumbre sobre el retorno de la inversi\u00f3n (en comparaci\u00f3n con otras opciones que compiten por los recursos) e incluso las caracter\u00edsticas demogr\u00e1ficas de los usuarios finales. Estos factores generan una importante aversi\u00f3n al riesgo que puede anular cualquier beneficio econ\u00f3mico o de otro tipo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Un error en la planificaci\u00f3n suele deberse a la confusi\u00f3n entre distintos tipos de procesos de toma de decisiones dentro de las organizaciones de los clientes: a veces, estos tienen procesos radicalmente diferentes para cambiar de tecnolog\u00eda, reconsiderar marcas dentro de una tecnolog\u00eda o reabastecerse. Esta confusi\u00f3n puede llevar a un c\u00e1lculo err\u00f3neo de las tasas y los plazos de adopci\u00f3n, con una magnitud considerable. Esto puede provocar que los flujos de efectivo derivados de la adopci\u00f3n se produzcan 3, 5 o incluso 10 a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s de lo previsto, con un impacto significativo en la rentabilidad.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

      Las mejores pr\u00e1cticas comienzan por preguntarse cu\u00e1les son los inhibidores, en particular en t\u00e9rminos de aversi\u00f3n al riesgo. Aseg\u00farese de comprender:<\/span><\/h2>\n\n
        \n
      1. \u00bfQui\u00e9n es el verdadero responsable de la toma de decisiones?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. \u00bfQu\u00e9 riesgo podr\u00edan percibir esas personas al emprender algo nuevo?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. \u00bfCu\u00e1les son las consecuencias \u2014tanto a nivel personal como organizativo\u2014 de equivocarse?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      4. \u00bfCu\u00e1nto trabajo cree quien toma la decisi\u00f3n que existe para solucionar la situaci\u00f3n si se elige mal?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      5. \u00bfQu\u00e9 obst\u00e1culos organizativos existen (por ejemplo, prioridades contrapuestas)?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

        Las respuestas claras a estas preguntas son la mejor gu\u00eda para la adopci\u00f3n. Adem\u00e1s, comprender las diferencias por segmento puede revelar la viabilidad de cada uno y, por lo tanto, la mejor estimaci\u00f3n del mercado potencial. Combinado con un profundo conocimiento del ciclo de compra, comprender el proceso de compra puede brindar visibilidad tanto sobre el momento como sobre la magnitud de la adopci\u00f3n.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Una tesis de inversi\u00f3n a menudo depende de la adopci\u00f3n de una forma u otra (por ejemplo, de un nuevo producto, modelo de negocio, tecnolog\u00eda, etc.), por lo que pensamos que ser\u00eda \u00fatil exponer \u201clas mejores\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":[39],"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"featured_image_background_position":"","promoted":false,"promoted-priority":0,"footnotes":""},"sector":[],"topic":[45,46,50,56,54,55],"audience":[],"insight-category":[145],"class_list":["post-463","insight","type-insight","status-publish","hentry","topic-adoption","topic-adoption-inhibitors","topic-growth-rates","topic-market-size","topic-purchasing-drivers","topic-purchasing-process","insight-category-drivers-of-choice","author-mark-stein"],"yoast_head":"\n002: Problems to Avoid when Forecasting Product, Service, and Technology Adoption as Part of Diligence - Matters Graph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/es\/insights\/problems-to-avoid-when-forecasting-product-service-and-technology-adoption-as-part-of-diligence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"002: Problems to Avoid when Forecasting Product, Service, and Technology Adoption as Part of Diligence - 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