{"id":467,"date":"2016-12-26T20:57:57","date_gmt":"2016-12-26T20:57:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=467"},"modified":"2026-04-09T01:25:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T01:25:31","slug":"sizing-up-bad-market-definitions","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/es\/insights\/sizing-up-bad-market-definitions\/","title":{"rendered":"004: Analizando definiciones de mercado err\u00f3neas"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"theme-block wp-block-group is-style-pull-left is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" ><p  class=\"appear-on-scroll is-style-intro wp-block-paragraph\" >Tras reflexionar sobre sus 20 a\u00f1os de experiencia en inversiones, un profesional del sector nos coment\u00f3 recientemente: \u201cCuando pienso en los errores que hemos cometido en el pasado, los peores momentos han sido cuando cre\u00edamos tener un mercado mayor del que realmente ten\u00edamos. Simplemente no hay nada que se pueda hacer\u2026 la empresa se queda sin margen de crecimiento\u201d.\u201d<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Debido a desaf\u00edos como estos, la determinaci\u00f3n del tama\u00f1o del mercado suele ocupar un lugar prioritario en la agenda de la debida diligencia del cliente.<\/p><\/div>\n\n<hr  class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Los an\u00e1lisis de tama\u00f1o de mercado a veces son sencillos: modelos creados en mercados con registro p\u00fablico (o una base de datos s\u00f3lida). En otros casos, requieren enfoques complejos basados en datos originales. La complejidad de estos enfoques, sumada a la inclinaci\u00f3n natural hacia lo cuantitativo de los profesionales de la inversi\u00f3n, hace que las t\u00e9cnicas en s\u00ed mismas a veces generen un debate considerable.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Mantener debates rigurosos sobre estos temas rara vez es algo malo, pero es vital que, en medio del debate, recordemos que ning\u00fan dise\u00f1o ingenioso puede salvar un buen enfoque para dimensionar el mercado de una mala definici\u00f3n del mismo.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Aqu\u00ed hay algunas preguntas que hacemos para asegurarnos de que estamos definiendo el mercado con claridad antes de dimensionarlo:<\/p>\n\n<ul  class=\"appear-on-scroll-children wp-block-list\" >\n<li><strong>\u00bfEst\u00e1 dimensionando el mercado actual (lo que se atiende hoy en d\u00eda), el mercado potencial (considerando el crecimiento potencial del mercado) o ambos?<\/strong>&nbsp;En los mercados de productos regulados, estos pueden ser uno y el mismo. Sin embargo, en los mercados que a\u00fan se encuentran en etapas de crecimiento, el dimensionamiento basado en el uso actual puede pasar por alto una cuesti\u00f3n clave sobre el margen de crecimiento (y el momento del crecimiento) en el mercado.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u00bfDeber\u00eda basarse el dimensionamiento de su mercado en las especificaciones del producto o en las necesidades del cliente?<\/strong> Si existen varios sustitutos disponibles para los clientes, como ocurre con muchos bienes de consumo, entonces se debe utilizar el dimensionamiento seg\u00fan la necesidad para que se consideren dichos sustitutos. Si se utiliza el enfoque &quot;TAM, SAM, SOM&quot; (es decir, Mercados Totalmente Accesibles, Mercados Accesibles y Mercados Accesibles), entonces el SAM o el SOM pueden utilizarse para filtrar hacia tipos de productos espec\u00edficos, pero el TAM deber\u00eda incluir, en la mayor\u00eda de los casos, los sustitutos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u00bfSe trata de un mercado c\u00edclico?<\/strong>&nbsp;Todo aquello que afecte a los consumidores europeos en 2016 probablemente tendr\u00e1 una din\u00e1mica muy diferente en un mercado alcista. Hay dos conclusiones importantes a tener en cuenta en este ejemplo: primero, que algunos mercados deben dimensionarse teniendo en cuenta la posibilidad de un crecimiento significativo; y segundo, que es fundamental saber c\u00f3mo podr\u00edan comportarse otras empresas ante una desaceleraci\u00f3n del mercado. Cabe recordar que esto puede variar seg\u00fan el segmento: a pesar del descenso del gasto de los consumidores europeos en nuestro ejemplo, los bienes de lujo presentan un grado de ciclicidad claramente distinto al de los productos de consumo masivo y de gama media-alta.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Esta es una lista parcial, pero lo importante es que centrarse en la definici\u00f3n (m\u00e1s que en la t\u00e9cnica) es fundamental para una correcta estimaci\u00f3n del tama\u00f1o de la inversi\u00f3n. Es esencial contar con definiciones claras y consensuadas por todo el equipo; las definiciones deficientes suelen derivar en debates pol\u00e9micos en el comit\u00e9 de inversiones o, peor a\u00fan, en encontrarse, tras el cierre de la operaci\u00f3n, con una empresa de la cartera con un margen de maniobra reducido.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reflexionando sobre sus 20 a\u00f1os de experiencia en inversiones, un profesional del sector nos coment\u00f3 recientemente: \u201cCuando pienso en los errores que hemos cometido en el pasado, los peores momentos han sido cuando\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":[39],"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"featured_image_background_position":"","promoted":false,"promoted-priority":0,"footnotes":""},"sector":[],"topic":[44,64,63,56],"audience":[],"insight-category":[138],"class_list":["post-467","insight","type-insight","status-publish","hentry","topic-addressable-market","topic-cyclicality","topic-market-definition","topic-market-size","insight-category-market-evaluation","author-mark-stein"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - 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