{"id":523,"date":"2018-12-25T14:45:36","date_gmt":"2018-12-25T14:45:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/?post_type=insight&p=523"},"modified":"2026-04-09T01:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T01:32:12","slug":"building-habits-to-reduce-due-diligence-mistakes","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/es\/insights\/building-habits-to-reduce-due-diligence-mistakes\/","title":{"rendered":"017: Desarrollar h\u00e1bitos para reducir los errores en la debida diligencia"},"content":{"rendered":"

La inversi\u00f3n en capital privado se ha descrito como una combinaci\u00f3n de arte y ciencia, que requiere de diversas disciplinas para tomar decisiones acertadas. En ese sentido, quer\u00eda compartir algunas reflexiones que utilizo para poner a prueba mi propio criterio. Todas giran en torno a una pregunta fundamental: \u00bfQu\u00e9 se me escapa?<\/p><\/div>\n\n

\n\n

Aqu\u00ed hay algunos errores comunes que encuentro con frecuencia en mi vida. Cada uno est\u00e1 relacionado con una falacia l\u00f3gica que tiene cierta historia:<\/p>\n\n

    \n
  1. La correlaci\u00f3n no implica causalidad.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>De los Cl\u00e1sicos es el de Cicer\u00f3n\u00a0post hoc ergo propter hoc<\/em>O, en otras palabras, \u201cdespu\u00e9s de esto, por lo tanto, a causa de esto\u201d. Tendemos a asumir fuertes v\u00ednculos causales entre eventos consecutivos. Cabe destacar que la comunidad financiera se esfuerza por mitigar el impacto de esta falacia. Por ejemplo, pensamos en t\u00e9rminos probabil\u00edsticos sobre el futuro, incorporando el riesgo junto con el rendimiento. Sin embargo, en un mundo donde los CIM buscan mejorar la imagen tanto de los equipos directivos como de las empresas, me encuentro rodeado de afirmaciones de causa y efecto sin fundamento. Y me veo obligado a recordar constantemente que los eventos consecutivos no necesariamente est\u00e1n relacionados.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. No des por sentado que el statu quo se mantendr\u00e1.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Desde las matem\u00e1ticas, existe una falacia relacionada llamada\u00a0falacia de la tasa base<\/em>, que es nuestra tendencia colectiva a realizar juicios de probabilidad basados en probabilidades condicionales, sin considerar el efecto de las probabilidades previas. B\u00e1sicamente, estos son modelos que olvidan sus supuestos. Por ejemplo, casi todos los modelos est\u00e1n condicionados a la continuidad de ciertos h\u00e1bitos de consumo (o empresariales), pero rara vez encuentro modelos que incorporen supuestos vinculados a estas tasas base. Muchos modelos contemplan un escenario de recesi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica, pero se trata de una contracci\u00f3n general y temporal. Considero importante, al menos por un momento, analizar el impacto de un cambio general en la tecnolog\u00eda, una modificaci\u00f3n en la estructura de la industria (por ejemplo, la entrada de nuevos competidores o la consolidaci\u00f3n de una empresa) o cambios en las preferencias del consumidor que afectan la demanda, y c\u00f3mo afectar\u00eda un cambio en esa tasa base a las perspectivas de esta empresa.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. El hecho de que un argumento sea malo no significa que no pueda llegar a una conclusi\u00f3n.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Por \u00faltimo, pero no menos importante, est\u00e1 la falacia de la falacia de la paja, que proviene de la l\u00f3gica formal. Esta est\u00e1 estrechamente relacionada con la falacia del hombre de paja y, b\u00e1sicamente, afirma que el hecho de que un argumento sea err\u00f3neo no significa que su conclusi\u00f3n sea falsa. Tomemos un ejemplo de los mercados de petr\u00f3leo y gas: varios analistas argumentaron que el mercado estaba impulsado por Arabia Saudita, que manten\u00eda bajos los precios del petr\u00f3leo para castigar a sus competidores geopol\u00edticos y econ\u00f3micos mediante una producci\u00f3n masiva. Los cr\u00edticos analizaron este argumento e identificaron fallas, por ejemplo, que Arabia Saudita no pod\u00eda permitirse continuar con los subsidios cruciales a su ciudadan\u00eda con precios bajos del petr\u00f3leo. Sin embargo, estos analistas asumieron, como resultado, que los precios del petr\u00f3leo no se mantendr\u00edan bajos. De hecho, los avances en la producci\u00f3n no convencional de Estados Unidos han mantenido bajos los precios del petr\u00f3leo a pesar del cambio de estrategia de Arabia Saudita. Estos cr\u00edticos ten\u00edan raz\u00f3n al atacar el argumento de que Arabia Saudita no mantendr\u00eda la pol\u00edtica, pero terminaron equivoc\u00e1ndose en general porque asumieron que, al refutar un argumento, hab\u00edan demostrado que su conclusi\u00f3n no se producir\u00eda.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

    Mi argumento no es que debamos cambiar nuestras herramientas en general como industria. En cambio, abogo por que nuestro equipo desarrolle h\u00e1bitos que ayuden a evitar esos errores. Lo veo como algo similar a estirar: los buenos h\u00e1bitos reducen el riesgo de lesiones evitables. Si piensas como yo, consulta el excelente libro de Jordan Ellenberg sobre un tema similar., C\u00f3mo no equivocarse<\/em>, que ofrece una mirada profunda a c\u00f3mo los conceptos matem\u00e1ticos se malinterpretan fundamentalmente de forma rutinaria en nuestros medios de comunicaci\u00f3n, comunicaciones empresariales y vida cotidiana.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    La inversi\u00f3n en capital privado se ha descrito como una combinaci\u00f3n de arte y ciencia, que requiere de una amplia gama de disciplinas para tomar decisiones acertadas. Con ese esp\u00edritu, quise\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":[82],"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"featured_image_background_position":"","promoted":false,"promoted-priority":0,"footnotes":""},"sector":[],"topic":[53,94],"audience":[],"insight-category":[146],"class_list":["post-523","insight","type-insight","status-publish","hentry","topic-best-practices","topic-investigative-research","insight-category-diligence-planning","author-jeff-merkle"],"yoast_head":"\n017: Building Habits to Reduce Due Diligence Mistakes - Matters Graph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/es\/insights\/building-habits-to-reduce-due-diligence-mistakes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"017: Building Habits to Reduce Due Diligence Mistakes - Matters Graph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Private Equity investing has been described as a combination of art and science, calling on a wide range of disciplines to make good judgements. 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