{"id":463,"date":"2016-12-10T20:43:33","date_gmt":"2016-12-10T20:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/?post_type=insight&p=463"},"modified":"2026-04-09T01:24:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T01:24:10","slug":"problems-to-avoid-when-forecasting-product-service-and-technology-adoption-as-part-of-diligence","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/fr\/insights\/problems-to-avoid-when-forecasting-product-service-and-technology-adoption-as-part-of-diligence\/","title":{"rendered":"002\u00a0: Probl\u00e8mes \u00e0 \u00e9viter lors de la pr\u00e9vision de l\u2019adoption de produits, de services et de technologies dans le cadre d\u2019une v\u00e9rification pr\u00e9alable"},"content":{"rendered":"

Une th\u00e8se d'investissement repose souvent sur l'adoption sous une forme ou une autre (par exemple, d'un nouveau produit, d'un mod\u00e8le commercial, d'une technologie, etc.), c'est pourquoi nous avons jug\u00e9 utile de pr\u00e9senter les \u201c meilleures et les pires \u201d pratiques pour \u00e9valuer le potentiel d'adoption.<\/p><\/div>\n\n

\n\n

Tout d'abord, les pi\u00e8ges courants.<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

Apr\u00e8s avoir examin\u00e9 des centaines de CIM, de VDD et de rapports industriels traitant de l'adoption, nous constatons que les approches dominantes sont souvent simplifi\u00e9es \u00e0 l'extr\u00eame et se pr\u00e9sentent sous l'une de ces deux formes\u00a0:<\/p>\n\n

    \n
  • Une courbe en S pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e en superposition d'un graphique des taux de p\u00e9n\u00e9tration actuels sans recherche ni analyse suffisantes pour identifier, et encore moins \u00e9tayer, o\u00f9 se situe la courbe en S du produit (et quand on peut raisonnablement s'attendre au prochain point d'inflexion) ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Une d\u00e9monstration et un t\u00e9moignage attestant de l'attractivit\u00e9 de la proposition de valeur. Par exemple, une enqu\u00eate aupr\u00e8s des clients d\u00e9montrant l'attrait sup\u00e9rieur d'une nouvelle technologie en termes de rapport qualit\u00e9-prix et d'avantages, indiquant ainsi son adoption g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

    Pour pr\u00e9voir avec pr\u00e9cision l'adoption, il est n\u00e9cessaire de comprendre le processus d'achat et ses obstacles \u2013 et plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, comment il est pilot\u00e9 et influenc\u00e9 par de vraies personnes, \u00e9voluant dans des cultures, priorit\u00e9s, contraintes et r\u00f4les uniques.<\/p>\n\n

    Ne pas bien comprendre l\u2019environnement et la dynamique des achats peut conduire \u00e0 deux erreurs d\u2019analyse majeures\u00a0: une surestimation consid\u00e9rable de la taille du march\u00e9 potentiel et des erreurs dans la pr\u00e9vision du calendrier d\u2019adoption\u00a0:<\/p>\n\n

      \n
    • Une mauvaise estimation de la taille du march\u00e9 potentiel r\u00e9sulte souvent d'une focalisation excessive sur la proposition de valeur, au d\u00e9triment d'une compr\u00e9hension insuffisante des risques per\u00e7us par les clients lors de l'adoption de nouvelles technologies. De nombreux facteurs contribuent \u00e0 accro\u00eetre la r\u00e9sistance au risque\u00a0: co\u00fbt \u00e9lev\u00e9 des interruptions de service, co\u00fbts importants de formation, incertitude du retour sur investissement (par rapport aux autres options concurrentes) et m\u00eame caract\u00e9ristiques d\u00e9mographiques des utilisateurs finaux. Ces facteurs engendrent une forte aversion au risque qui peut annuler tout avantage \u00e9conomique ou autre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Une mauvaise \u00e9valuation du calendrier r\u00e9sulte souvent de la confusion entre diff\u00e9rents types de processus d\u00e9cisionnels au sein des organisations clientes\u00a0: les processus de changement technologique, de r\u00e9\u00e9valuation de marques au sein d\u2019une m\u00eame technologie ou de r\u00e9approvisionnement peuvent \u00eatre radicalement diff\u00e9rents. Cette confusion peut entra\u00eener une erreur d\u2019un ordre de grandeur dans l\u2019estimation des taux d\u2019adoption et du calendrier. Les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019adoption peuvent ainsi se manifester 3, 5, voire 10\u00a0ans apr\u00e8s les pr\u00e9visions, avec un impact significatif sur le retour sur investissement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

      La meilleure pratique consiste \u00e0 identifier les freins, notamment en mati\u00e8re d'aversion au risque. Il est essentiel de bien comprendre\u00a0:<\/span><\/h2>\n\n
        \n
      1. Qui est le v\u00e9ritable d\u00e9cideur ?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. Quels risques cette personne (ou ces personnes) pourrait-elle percevoir en entreprenant quelque chose de nouveau\u00a0?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. Quelles sont les cons\u00e9quences \u2013 tant sur le plan personnel qu\u2019organisationnel \u2013 d\u2019une erreur ?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      4. Quel travail le d\u00e9cideur estime-t-il n\u00e9cessaire pour corriger la situation si le mauvais choix est fait\u00a0?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      5. Quels sont les freins organisationnels existants (par exemple, des priorit\u00e9s concurrentes)\u00a0?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

        Des r\u00e9ponses claires \u00e0 ces questions constituent les meilleurs indicateurs de l'adoption. Comprendre les diff\u00e9rences selon les segments permet d'\u00e9valuer la pertinence de chaque segment et, par cons\u00e9quent, d'estimer au mieux le march\u00e9 potentiel. Associ\u00e9e \u00e0 une solide compr\u00e9hension du cycle d'achat, cette analyse du processus d'achat permet d'anticiper le calendrier et l'ampleur de l'adoption.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Une th\u00e8se d'investissement repose souvent sur l'adoption, sous une forme ou une autre (par exemple, d'un nouveau produit, d'un mod\u00e8le commercial, d'une technologie, etc.), c'est pourquoi nous avons jug\u00e9 utile de pr\u00e9senter les \u201c meilleures\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":[39],"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"featured_image_background_position":"","promoted":false,"promoted-priority":0,"footnotes":""},"sector":[],"topic":[45,46,50,56,54,55],"audience":[],"insight-category":[145],"class_list":["post-463","insight","type-insight","status-publish","hentry","topic-adoption","topic-adoption-inhibitors","topic-growth-rates","topic-market-size","topic-purchasing-drivers","topic-purchasing-process","insight-category-drivers-of-choice","author-mark-stein"],"yoast_head":"\n002: Problems to Avoid when Forecasting Product, Service, and Technology Adoption as Part of Diligence - Matters Graph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/fr\/insights\/problems-to-avoid-when-forecasting-product-service-and-technology-adoption-as-part-of-diligence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"002: Problems to Avoid when Forecasting Product, Service, and Technology Adoption as Part of Diligence - 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