{"id":467,"date":"2016-12-26T20:57:57","date_gmt":"2016-12-26T20:57:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=467"},"modified":"2026-04-09T01:25:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T01:25:31","slug":"sizing-up-bad-market-definitions","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/fr\/insights\/sizing-up-bad-market-definitions\/","title":{"rendered":"004\u00a0: \u00c9valuation des d\u00e9finitions de march\u00e9 erron\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"theme-block wp-block-group is-style-pull-left is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" ><p  class=\"appear-on-scroll is-style-intro wp-block-paragraph\" >Apr\u00e8s vingt ans d&#039;exp\u00e9rience dans l&#039;investissement, un professionnel nous confiait r\u00e9cemment\u00a0: \u201c\u00a0Quand je repense \u00e0 nos erreurs pass\u00e9es, les pires ont \u00e9t\u00e9 celles o\u00f9 nous surestimions la taille de notre march\u00e9. Il n&#039;y a rien \u00e0 faire\u2026 l&#039;entreprise finit par ne plus avoir de marge de croissance.\u00a0\u201d<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">En raison de d\u00e9fis comme ceux-ci, l&#039;\u00e9valuation de la taille du march\u00e9 figure souvent en t\u00eate des priorit\u00e9s des \u00e9quipes de connaissance du client.<\/p><\/div>\n\n<hr  class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">L&#039;\u00e9valuation de la taille d&#039;un march\u00e9 est parfois simple\u00a0: il s&#039;agit de mod\u00e8les construits sur des march\u00e9s o\u00f9 l&#039;enregistrement public (ou une base de donn\u00e9es extr\u00eamement fiable) existe. Dans d&#039;autres cas, elle requiert des approches complexes s&#039;appuyant sur des donn\u00e9es originales. La complexit\u00e9 de ces approches, conjugu\u00e9e \u00e0 la propension naturelle des professionnels de l&#039;investissement \u00e0 privil\u00e9gier les m\u00e9thodes quantitatives, fait que ces techniques elles-m\u00eames font parfois l&#039;objet de vifs d\u00e9bats.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Il est rarement n\u00e9gatif d&#039;avoir des d\u00e9bats rigoureux sur ces sujets, mais il est essentiel qu&#039;au c\u0153ur du d\u00e9bat, nous nous souvenions qu&#039;aucune conception, aussi ing\u00e9nieuse soit-elle, ne peut sauver une bonne approche d&#039;estimation de la taille du march\u00e9 d&#039;une mauvaise d\u00e9finition de ce dernier.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Voici quelques questions que nous posons pour nous assurer de bien d\u00e9finir le march\u00e9 avant de le dimensionner\u00a0:<\/p>\n\n<ul  class=\"appear-on-scroll-children wp-block-list\" >\n<li><strong>\u00c9valuez-vous la taille du march\u00e9 actuel (ce qui est propos\u00e9 aujourd&#039;hui), ou le march\u00e9 potentiel (en tenant compte de la croissance potentielle du march\u00e9), ou les deux ?<\/strong>&nbsp;Sur les march\u00e9s de produits r\u00e9glement\u00e9s, ces deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments peuvent \u00eatre identiques. En revanche, sur les march\u00e9s encore en phase de croissance, dimensionner le march\u00e9 en fonction de l&#039;utilisation actuelle risque de passer \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 d&#039;une question essentielle concernant le potentiel de croissance (et le calendrier de croissance) du march\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Votre dimensionnement de march\u00e9 doit-il \u00eatre bas\u00e9 sur les sp\u00e9cifications du produit ou sur les besoins du client\u00a0?<\/strong> Si plusieurs produits de substitution sont disponibles pour les clients, comme c&#039;est souvent le cas pour les biens de consommation, il convient d&#039;utiliser une approche de dimensionnement bas\u00e9e sur les besoins afin de prendre en compte ces substituts. Si vous utilisez l&#039;approche \u201c\u00a0TAM, SAM, SOM\u00a0\u201d (c&#039;est-\u00e0-dire march\u00e9 total adressable, march\u00e9 adressable desservi et march\u00e9 accessible desservi), le SAM ou le SOM peuvent servir \u00e0 affiner la s\u00e9lection \u00e0 des types de produits sp\u00e9cifiques, mais le TAM doit, dans la plupart des cas, inclure les produits de substitution.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>S&#039;agit-il d&#039;un march\u00e9 cyclique\u00a0?<\/strong>&nbsp;Tout ce qui touche au budget des consommateurs europ\u00e9ens en 2016 conna\u00eetra probablement une dynamique tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente en p\u00e9riode de march\u00e9 haussier. Deux enseignements sont \u00e0 tirer de cet exemple\u00a0: premi\u00e8rement, certains march\u00e9s doivent \u00eatre dimensionn\u00e9s en tenant compte de leur potentiel de croissance important\u00a0; deuxi\u00e8mement, il est essentiel de comprendre comment les autres entreprises pourraient se comporter face \u00e0 un ralentissement du march\u00e9. Il convient de rappeler que cela peut varier selon les segments\u00a0: malgr\u00e9 la baisse des d\u00e9penses de consommation en Europe dans notre exemple, les produits de luxe pr\u00e9sentent un degr\u00e9 de cyclicit\u00e9 nettement diff\u00e9rent de celui des produits de masse et des produits \u00ab\u00a0masstige\u00a0\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p class=\"appear-on-scroll wp-block-paragraph\">Cette liste est partielle, mais l&#039;essentiel est que, pour une \u00e9valuation r\u00e9ussie, il est crucial de privil\u00e9gier la d\u00e9finition (plut\u00f4t que la technique). Il est indispensable que tous les membres de l&#039;\u00e9quipe s&#039;accordent sur des d\u00e9finitions claires\u00a0; des d\u00e9finitions impr\u00e9cises m\u00e8nent souvent \u00e0 des d\u00e9bats houleux au sein du comit\u00e9 d&#039;investissement, voire pire, \u00e0 la d\u00e9couverte, apr\u00e8s la cl\u00f4ture de l&#039;op\u00e9ration, d&#039;une entreprise du portefeuille dont la marge de man\u0153uvre est r\u00e9duite.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Un professionnel de l&#039;investissement, revenant sur 20 ans d&#039;exp\u00e9rience, nous a r\u00e9cemment confi\u00e9\u00a0: \u201c\u00a0Quand je repense \u00e0 nos erreurs pass\u00e9es, les pires p\u00e9riodes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 celles o\u00f9\u2026\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>","protected":false},"author":[39],"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"featured_image_background_position":"","promoted":false,"promoted-priority":0,"footnotes":""},"sector":[],"topic":[44,64,63,56],"audience":[],"insight-category":[138],"class_list":["post-467","insight","type-insight","status-publish","hentry","topic-addressable-market","topic-cyclicality","topic-market-definition","topic-market-size","insight-category-market-evaluation","author-mark-stein"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - 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