{"id":523,"date":"2018-12-25T14:45:36","date_gmt":"2018-12-25T14:45:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/?post_type=insight&p=523"},"modified":"2026-04-09T01:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T01:32:12","slug":"building-habits-to-reduce-due-diligence-mistakes","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/fr\/insights\/building-habits-to-reduce-due-diligence-mistakes\/","title":{"rendered":"017\u00a0: D\u00e9velopper des habitudes pour r\u00e9duire les erreurs de diligence raisonnable"},"content":{"rendered":"

L'investissement en capital-investissement est souvent d\u00e9crit comme un art et une science, n\u00e9cessitant la ma\u00eetrise de nombreuses disciplines pour porter des jugements \u00e9clair\u00e9s. C'est dans cet esprit que je souhaitais partager quelques r\u00e9flexions qui me permettent d'affiner mon propre jugement. Elles s'articulent toutes autour d'une question centrale\u00a0: qu'est-ce qui m'\u00e9chappe\u00a0?<\/p><\/div>\n\n

\n\n

Voici quelques erreurs courantes que je constate r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement dans mon environnement professionnel. Chacune d'elles est li\u00e9e \u00e0 un sophisme qui a une certaine histoire\u00a0:<\/p>\n\n

    \n
  1. Corr\u00e9lation n'est pas causalit\u00e9.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Parmi les classiques, on trouve Cic\u00e9ron.\u00a0post hoc ergo propter hoc<\/em>Ou, en gros, \u201c apr\u00e8s ceci, donc \u00e0 cause de cela \u201d. Nous avons tendance \u00e0 \u00e9tablir des liens de causalit\u00e9 forts entre des \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui se succ\u00e8dent. Il faut reconna\u00eetre au monde de la finance le m\u00e9rite de s'efforcer d'att\u00e9nuer les cons\u00e9quences de ce raisonnement fallacieux. Par exemple, nous envisageons l'avenir de mani\u00e8re probabiliste, en int\u00e9grant le risque au rendement. Cependant, dans un monde o\u00f9 les indicateurs de performance cherchent \u00e0 embellir les performances des \u00e9quipes dirigeantes et des entreprises, je me retrouve constamment confront\u00e9 \u00e0 des affirmations de cause \u00e0 effet sans fondement. Et je dois r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement me rappeler que des \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui se succ\u00e8dent ne sont pas n\u00e9cessairement li\u00e9s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Ne pr\u00e9sumez pas que le statu quo perdurera.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>En math\u00e9matiques, il existe un sophisme apparent\u00e9 appel\u00e9 le\u00a0erreur du taux de base<\/em>, Il s'agit de notre tendance collective \u00e0 formuler des estimations de probabilit\u00e9s \u00e0 partir de probabilit\u00e9s conditionnelles, sans tenir compte de l'influence des probabilit\u00e9s ant\u00e9rieures. En clair, ces mod\u00e8les n\u00e9gligent leurs hypoth\u00e8ses. Par exemple, presque tous les mod\u00e8les sont conditionn\u00e9s par la persistance de certaines habitudes de consommation (ou d'activit\u00e9), mais il est rare d'en trouver qui int\u00e8grent r\u00e9ellement des hypoth\u00e8ses li\u00e9es \u00e0 ces taux de base. Nombre de mod\u00e8les envisagent une r\u00e9cession \u00e9conomique, mais il s'agit alors d'une contraction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale et temporaire. Il me semble essentiel de consid\u00e9rer, ne serait-ce qu'un instant, l'impact d'une \u00e9volution technologique globale, d'une modification de la structure du secteur (par exemple, l'arriv\u00e9e de nouveaux acteurs ou la consolidation d'un groupe) ou d'une \u00e9volution des pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences des consommateurs influant sur la demande, et d'\u00e9valuer les cons\u00e9quences d'une variation de ce taux de base sur les perspectives de l'entreprise.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Ce n'est pas parce qu'un argument est mauvais que sa conclusion est impossible.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Enfin, il y a le sophisme de l'homme de paille, issu de la logique formelle. Ce sophisme est \u00e9troitement li\u00e9 \u00e0 celui de l'homme de paille et affirme que le fait qu'un argument soit faux n'implique pas n\u00e9cessairement que sa conclusion soit fausse. Prenons l'exemple des march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers et gaziers\u00a0: plusieurs analystes ont avanc\u00e9 que le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait manipul\u00e9 par l'Arabie saoudite, qui maintenait les prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e0 un niveau bas afin de punir ses concurrents g\u00e9opolitiques et \u00e9conomiques en augmentant sa production au maximum. Les critiques ont analys\u00e9 cet argument et en ont relev\u00e9 les failles\u00a0\u2013 par exemple, l'incapacit\u00e9 de l'Arabie saoudite \u00e0 maintenir les subventions essentielles \u00e0 sa population avec des prix du p\u00e9trole aussi bas. Or, ces analystes en ont d\u00e9duit que les prix du p\u00e9trole ne resteraient pas bas. De fait, les avanc\u00e9es am\u00e9ricaines en mati\u00e8re de production non conventionnelle ont permis de contenir les prix du p\u00e9trole malgr\u00e9 le changement de strat\u00e9gie saoudienne. Ces critiques avaient raison de s'attaquer \u00e0 l'argument selon lequel l'Arabie saoudite ne maintiendrait pas cette politique, mais ils se sont finalement tromp\u00e9s car ils ont suppos\u00e9 qu'en r\u00e9futant un argument, ils prouvaient que sa conclusion ne se r\u00e9aliserait pas.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

    Mon argument n'est pas qu'il faille changer tous nos outils \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle de l'industrie. Je pr\u00e9conise plut\u00f4t que notre \u00e9quipe prenne de bonnes habitudes pour \u00e9viter ces erreurs. C'est un peu comme s'\u00e9tirer\u00a0: de bonnes habitudes r\u00e9duisent le risque de blessures \u00e9vitables. Si vous partagez mon avis, je vous recommande l'excellent ouvrage de Jordan Ellenberg sur un sujet similaire., Comment ne pas se tromper<\/em>, qui examine en profondeur la mani\u00e8re dont les concepts math\u00e9matiques sont fondamentalement mal compris de fa\u00e7on routini\u00e8re dans nos m\u00e9dias, nos communications d'entreprise et notre vie quotidienne.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    L\u2019investissement en capital-investissement est souvent d\u00e9crit comme un art et une science, n\u00e9cessitant l\u2019expertise de nombreuses disciplines pour prendre des d\u00e9cisions \u00e9clair\u00e9es. C\u2019est dans cet esprit que je souhaitais\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":[82],"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"featured_image_background_position":"","promoted":false,"promoted-priority":0,"footnotes":""},"sector":[],"topic":[53,94],"audience":[],"insight-category":[146],"class_list":["post-523","insight","type-insight","status-publish","hentry","topic-best-practices","topic-investigative-research","insight-category-diligence-planning","author-jeff-merkle"],"yoast_head":"\n017: Building Habits to Reduce Due Diligence Mistakes - Matters Graph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mattersgraph.com\/fr\/insights\/building-habits-to-reduce-due-diligence-mistakes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"017: Building Habits to Reduce Due Diligence Mistakes - Matters Graph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Private Equity investing has been described as a combination of art and science, calling on a wide range of disciplines to make good judgements. 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